Thursday, April 19, 2007

Look out, Barry, A-Rod's a-comin'

OAKLAND — Barry Bonds launched a pair of bombs in Pittsburgh Friday night, which not only pulled him a little closer to Hank Aaron, but at least for a day, a little further away from the hard-charging Alex Rodriguez.

OK, so Bonds still has a 267-homer lead on A-Rod. No reason for Barry to start hyperventilating yet. Not that he would anyway, seeing that he hasn't ever sweated anyone trying to run him down.

But if and when Bonds does get the all-time home run record sometime this year, he'd better ride it for all it's worth. Unlike Aaron's 33-year reign as the king, Barry may sit in the big chair for less than a decade.

The incredible power start of Rodriguez this season — six homers in his first seven games — has rekindled the notion that this guy A-Rod might be a pretty fair baseball player after all. Not only that, it has reenergized a once-prevailing supposition that Bonds will only be keeping the seat warm for the man who will one day take sports' most ballyhooed record completely out of sight.

For the moment — and yes, it's only April — A-Rod is A-God again. One homerless week and a couple of errors and he'll be back to being A-Dog in Gotham. But look, it's only the usual short-term New York neurotic nonsense. Long term, we'll one day view Rodriguez as one of the greatest players ever ... something he already is, to be perfectly frank about it.

Rodriguez, at a mere 31 years old, has 470 home runs through the beginningof what will be his 12th full season. Sick. Bonds, at the same stage, had right around 335. If A-Rod simply averages 30 homers a year over the next 10 seasons — and he's averaged roughly 43 a year over those first full 11 — he'll hit 770 home runs. If he continues at that 43-homer average, he'll be at 900 by age 41.

Of course, Bonds' big advantage is that he's already done it, or nearly done it. A career can be derailed over the course of 10 years, as we've seen. Rodriguez has a long road ahead to the 700 Club.

"It all comes down to staying healthy," said Yankees manager Joe Torre Friday night as New York hit town for a three-game weekend set with Oakland. "Look at (Ken) Griffey Jr. Everybody had high aspirations for him, then all of a sudden, he started getting hurt. You have to be lucky and stay healthy. But I don't think there's any question what Alex is capable of. The sky's the limit."

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